{"id":911,"date":"2016-02-20T12:47:00","date_gmt":"2016-02-20T12:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/projects\/horsesforsources\/jobs-wont-be-jobs-anymore_022016\/"},"modified":"2016-02-20T12:47:00","modified_gmt":"2016-02-20T12:47:00","slug":"jobs-wont-be-jobs-anymore_022016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/jobs-wont-be-jobs-anymore_022016\/","title":{"rendered":"The jobs aren&#8217;t &#8220;going away&#8221; &#8211; they&#8217;ve already pretty much gone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19506\" src=\"http:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/Robo-factory-.png\" alt=\"Robo factory\" width=\"578\" height=\"385\" \/>Oh boy &#8211; the amount of fantastical claims we are being spoon-fed by some experts in the market today is just getting a bit absurd:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>McKinsey believes\u00a0as much as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/business-functions\/business-technology\/our-insights\/four-fundamentals-of-workplace-automation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">45% of current jobs<\/a> could be replaced using technology that already exists;<\/li>\n<li>Forrester claims 1 million US B2B sales jobs <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.forrester.com\/andy_hoar\/15-04-14-death_of_a_b2b_salesman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">will go away by 2020<\/a>;<\/li>\n<li>Gartner predicts <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/rundown\/smart-robots-will-take-third-jobs-2025-gartner-says\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one in three jobs<\/a> will be converted to software, robots and smart machines by 2025;<\/li>\n<li>According to an Oxford University Study, about <a href=\"http:\/\/www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk\/downloads\/academic\/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">47\u00a0percent of total US employment<\/a> is at risk;<\/li>\n<li>\n<div class=\"intro\">Stephen Hawking warns us that\u00a0AI would be the biggest &#8211; and possibly the last &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/science\/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we-taking-9313474.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">event in human history<\/a>;<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div class=\"intro\">The Guardian (bless them) even highlights Scientist Moshe Vardi&#8217;s view that the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2016\/feb\/13\/artificial-intelligence-ai-unemployment-jobs-moshe-vardi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">oldest profession in the world<\/a> is under threat of being robotized (interesting&#8230;).<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The beauty of all these wild predictions is that few will remember who\u00a0made them in a couple of years &#8211; or the fact they were made at all. \u00a0That&#8217;s the beauty of being an analyst\/visionary in today&#8217;s market &#8211; you can make up any old fantastical crap and never be held accountable for it in the future. \u00a0(Not that I have ever been guilty of said behaviour&#8230;)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 14pt;\">Most of these claims are moot, as most of these &#8220;jobs&#8221; have already been automated away, or moved offshore<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s dissect this quickly:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rote B2B sales and customer service jobs have already gone away.<\/strong>\u00a0 Forrester&#8217;s jaw-dropping prediction is a simple case of analysts predicting things that have already happened to create some headline noise. Most B2B transactional customer service tasks have already been automated, or at least offshored. \u00a0I&#8217;m sorry, but I can barely think of a single instance where I have <em>spoken<\/em> to a customer service rep, except some instances when I needed to make a large purchase, or I had an inquiry so unique, there was no way to automate it. And even when I do need to <em>talk<\/em> to someone, I often get scripted responses from some rep\u00a0in India or the Philippines &#8211; my recent complaint<!-- pagebreak --> to\u00a0British Airways received some impressive\u00a0canned email responses from\u00a0Mrinal Samant, essentially telling me &#8220;Bugger off, you&#8217;re not getting anything out of us, and the\u00a0only communication you can ever have with us &#8211; these days &#8211; is through scripted emailed responses from offshore call center workers.&#8221; If the likes of even a BA (long-famed for good service) is doing this, you can bet there&#8217;s not a whole lot of fat left for these enterprises to trim in their sales and support ops.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Manufacturing jobs have already been\u00a0automated out. \u00a0<\/strong>Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if you entered a car plant 30 years ago you may be greeted by scenes of 3,000 workers beavering away. \u00a0Today, that same plant will be about 50-100 workers and a bunch of machines. It&#8217;s already been automated. \u00a0Of course there is more to come, but I would argue we&#8217;ve already seen the worst of it. The biggest future threat are the Apple jobs outsourced to FoxConn in China, where over one million people are employed to make our iPads and iPhones, largely because the circuitry is too intricate for robots. However, new developments in robotics are even threatening to displace these Chinese workers, which could be a travesty for their economy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Transactional back-office and IT work has already been moved\u00a0offshore.<\/strong>\u00a0We cover thousands of IT services engagements, over a 1000 F&amp;A deals and several hundred industry-specific BPO deals &#8211; the main proponents of offshore. \u00a0True, there is room to automate \/ offshore more processes from enterprises&#8217;\u00a0operations, but we&#8217;re talking relatively small numbers here &#8211; maybe 10-20% more labor reduction from some stagnating back office operations (in many cases) over the next 3-5 years. Much of the fat has already been trimmed&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Automation in the back office is about productivity improvements, not direct headcount reduction.<\/strong> Automation is only reducing <em>small tranches<\/em> of an employee&#8217;s time &#8211; \u00a0it&#8217;s very difficult to remove an <em>entire office job <\/em>through automation, you are just making that job more efficient and freeing up that employee&#8217;s time to work on something else. Automation in the back office is about closing the books faster, about monitoring systems more effectively, about throwing off better data for analytics, about giving management much greater visibility into their operations, and integrating\u00a0the back office with the middle and front. \u00a0Better run companies can then look for people with more creative, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/social-skills-and-reputation_082915\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">socially-intelligent<\/a>, analytical, innovative skills, once the rote work is chugging along the way it should be. Hence, the bigger impact is coming in the guise of <em>productivity improvements<\/em> from Robotic Process Automation platforms, better analytics and customer engagement through Digital technologies, and companies simply operating more effectively with better data to make decisions, and staff more focused on providing business\u00a0value, than merely turning widgets.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 14pt;\">Let&#8217;s dial back to reality and be honest about what is really happening<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Enterprises want to restrict hiring people to do operational jobs &#8211; it&#8217;s not that today&#8217;s jobs are <em>going away<\/em>, it&#8217;s the simple fact that large numbers of operational jobs will not be <em>created<\/em>\u00a0in the future, as enterprises can get what they need with less people.\u00a0<span class=\"s1\">Just revisit our Value Beyond Cost study we ran with KPMG last\u00a0year, where we asked 168 senior executives about the priorities of their C-Suites with their operations:<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_18302\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/Uncaring-Economy.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18302 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/Uncaring-Economy-e1437509089978.jpg\" alt=\"Click to Enlarge\" width=\"578\" height=\"434\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to Enlarge<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">What is startlingly apparent here, beyond the fact that well over 90% of C-Suite directives are obsessed with cost and flexible services as operational priorities, is that less than half (48%) view improving their operational talent as important, 65% are exploring efforts to restrict the recruitment of labor where possible, and 62% are looking, with varying levels of interest, at automation and robotics with the specific purpose of reducing their reliance on labor. The bottom line here is very clear \u2013 C-Suites are caring less and less about their people, and more and more about their services.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The big question many are facing now isn\u2019t whether to invest heavily in their people \u2013 it\u2019s whether to invest in technology to lesson\u00a0the need to hire staff, or use outsourcing partners to reduce the burden of inhouse staffing cost, while improving their access to flexible services. \u00a0Or use a combination of the two\u2026 or use an outsourcer which is using robotics on itself and is willing to pass on the benefits to its clients desperate to move from a legacy labor-centric operational infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 14pt;\">The Bottom-line: We have to stop the attention-seeking hype and refocus on the reality of our world<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In recent years, the insane uptick of social media and information sharing has warped viewpoints and predictions out of all proportion. Now it feels that the only way people believe they can get noticed is by claiming armageddon is upon us. \u00a0And the sad truth is, declaring doom and gloom may be their only avenue left to get some attention.<\/p>\n<p>As we&#8217;ve analyzed, the future is more about the <em>type<\/em> of jobs we need to create, not the ones we could protect. \u00a0I can assure you -right now &#8211; that the new generation of kids coming out of college are not clamoring to process insurance claims, sit on IT help-desks, input data into payroll systems or manage customer orders. Even if we still had demand for these jobs, we&#8217;d struggle to fill them! And most enterprises have figured how to shift these jobs offshore, where there is a cost-effective supply of labor to do these tasks.<\/p>\n<p>Under the bigger threat from automation is the offshore locations which deliver these services, as most are, by and large, very robotizable\u00a0tasks that smart service providers are already figuring out how to automate using the various RPA and IT automation tools available on the market today. \u00a0If I were Narendra Modi or\u00a0Xi Jinping (perish the thought), I would be very concerned that a whole workforce generation needs reorienting to address work activities that are growing in demand, as we are fast approaching a time of labor\u00a0<em>oversupply<\/em> for the demand coming from North America, Europe and ANZ. \u00a0The shift has already happened, we are now experiencing the aftershock of the shift towards the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.horsesforsources.com\/as-a-service-economy-defined_080915\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">As-a-Service Economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>So let&#8217;s stop trying to peer blindly into an uncertain future, and instead address an exciting present where there is real potential to achieve new thresholds of business value.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oh boy &#8211; the amount of fantastical claims we are being spoon-fed by some experts in the market today is&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,52,57,78,81,90,832,95,830],"tags":[303],"organization":[],"ppma_author":[19],"class_list":["post-911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-process-outsourcing-bpo","category-cognitive-computing","category-digital-transformation","category-hfsresearch-com-homepage","category-it-outsourcing-it-services","category-robotic-process-automation","category-sourcing-best-practises","category-sourcing-locations","category-sourcing-change","tag-enterprise-irregulars"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The jobs aren&#039;t &quot;going away&quot; 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